Does the model actually work?

Everything else here works out what you should provide. This page checks whether the model that produced it has ever been right. Give it a period that has already finished — the PDs you used at the start, and what actually happened by the end.

Failed1,200 borrowers · worked example

Failed on calibration. The allowance this model produces is understated.

This example is meant to fail. The book is 1,200 synthetic borrowers with one grade deliberately wrong: BB was priced at 2.00% and defaulted at 6.00%.

Notice what still passes. The ranking is sound, and the portfolio total — 3.75% observed against 2.75% predicted — reads as acceptable. That is the whole point: a portfolio-level test nets an understated grade against a conservative one and reports nothing wrong, so calibration is tested grade by grade. Load your own file above to replace this.

Your data

One row per borrower. Two columns are essential: the PD you predicted, and whether it defaulted.

Choose a file

LOAN_ACCT_NO,Opening PD,Default Flag,Risk Grade,Balance
L-00141,0.00318,N,A,3090219
L-00564,0.00938,N,BBB,3906868
L-00416,0.00945,N,BBB,2435569
L-00059,0.00302,N,A,2600291
L-00480,0.00868,N,BBB,764678
L-00505,0.00896,N,BBB,1969656
L-01082,0.05365,N,B,2819875
L-00757,0.01932,N,BB,2319685
L-00274,0.00288,N,A,1542857
L-01138,0.18357,Y,CCC,3020840
L-01060,0.05224,N,B,4119762
L-01005,0.05493,N,B,693421
L-00282,0.00311,N,A,1791045
L-00311,0.00897,N,BBB,2199382
L-01049,0.05614,N,B,2021780
L-00424,0.00921,N,BBB,2014786
L-00078,0.00295,N,A,2350794
L-00450,0.00882,N,BBB,4639014
L-00772,0.01913,N,BB,4822782
L-00232,0.00285,N,A,545357
L-00688,0.02105,N,BB,4798336
L-00874,0.01984,N,BB,4549261
L-00022,0.00299,N,A,4495718
L-00248,0.00309,N,A,2297659
L-00277,0.00299,N,A,459277
L-01003,0.05521,N,B,812449
L-01127,0.05177,N,B,2650662
L-00849,0.02019,N,BB,4058230
L-00346,0.00928,N,BBB,4261204
L-00776,0.01974,N,BB,1177274
L-01048,0.05343,N,B,733067
L-00679,0.01920,N,BB,3843329
L-01096,0.05757,N,B,4512319
L-00173,0.00300,N,A,3344838
L-00044,0.00293,N,A,1543075
L-00440,0.00950,N,BBB,1848398
L-00673,0.01901,N,BB,935332
L-00895,0.02047,N,BB,2428275
L-00755,0.01963,N,BB,4949778
L-00604,0.00869,N,BBB,1735166
L-00617,0.00937,N,BBB,3630993
L-00476,0.00864,N,BBB,2981834
L-00526,0.00864,N,BBB,1374560
L-00647,0.00900,N,BBB,4606083
L-01046,0.05751,N,B,356983
L-00780,0.01965,N,BB,3984100
L-00538,0.00873,N,BBB,2637723
L-00196,0.00291,N,A,3925415
L-00093,0.00312,N,A,4725360
L-00878,0.01910,N,BB,4600993
L-00970,0.05684,N,B,2327383
L-01052,0.05365,N,B,3123017
L-00833,0.02113,N,BB,3107721
L-01112,0.05313,N,B,584195
L-00106,0.00285,N,A,1665168
L-00429,0.00857,N,BBB,2367009
L-00033,0.00307,N,A,3037973
L-01035,0.05501,N,B,1202091
L-00309,0.00925,N,BBB,2106135
L-01184,0.18419,N,CCC,367418
L-00692,0.01972,N,BB,4043810
L-00969,0.05802,N,B,2791634
L-01038,0.05576,N,B,3764914
L-00524,0.00953,N,BBB,2867174
L-00529,0.00949,N,BBB,263207
L-00599,0.00926,N,BBB,1090457
L-00206,0.00285,N,A,965060
L-00036,0.00302,N,A,4817363
L-00334,0.00938,N,BBB,740444
L-00549,0.00852,N,BBB,4658749
L-00941,0.02010,N,BB,4816931
L-00917,0.01993,N,BB,1092845
L-00572,0.00923,N,BBB,1636319
L-00074,0.00289,N,A,800077
L-01126,0.05799,N,B,3721454
L-00591,0.00901,N,BBB,1717360
L-00363,0.00862,N,BBB,4723751
L-00735,0.02060,N,BB,3515868
L-00146,0.00290,N,A,1042346
L-00472,0.00874,N,BBB,4333177
L-00088,0.00293,N,A,2462266
L-00042,0.00296,N,A,3325945
L-00588,0.00863,N,BBB,4422076
L-00762,0.02083,N,BB,1992881
L-00430,0.00851,N,BBB,4935894
L-00483,0.00915,N,BBB,4268990
L-00851,0.01987,N,BB,865420
L-00556,0.00890,N,BBB,3728511
L-00222,0.00300,N,A,3872096
L-00243,0.00289,N,A,1775662
L-00765,0.02050,N,BB,4236178
L-00589,0.00911,N,BBB,3133235
L-00932,0.02100,N,BB,2497176
L-01057,0.05201,N,B,2943779
L-00977,0.05697,N,B,671641
L-00223,0.00284,N,A,1041647
L-00801,0.02077,N,BB,1451062
L-00291,0.00285,N,A,3444300
L-00441,0.00851,N,BBB,3926150
L-00650,0.00882,N,BBB,354329
L-00578,0.00901,N,BBB,1135155
L-00723,0.01955,N,BB,4312434
L-01045,0.05395,N,B,2050055
L-00854,0.02081,N,BB,3518324
L-00108,0.00310,N,A,287123
L-01019,0.05587,N,B,695435
L-00682,0.02107,N,BB,4546978
L-00984,0.05696,N,B,3010292
L-00190,0.00283,N,A,4069331
L-00496,0.00853,N,BBB,4144454
L-00455,0.00944,N,BBB,3714499
L-00154,0.00293,N,A,4282966
L-00500,0.00920,N,BBB,3181988
L-00419,0.00932,N,BBB,4166328
L-00985,0.05279,N,B,2848286
L-01001,0.05349,N,B,3307909
L-00859,0.01966,N,BB,1161122
L-00212,0.00289,N,A,2123682
L-00064,0.00300,N,A,1626475
L-00369,0.00909,N,BBB,3377482
L-00067,0.00311,N,A,2052978
L-00796,0.02035,N,BB,4355215
L-00107,0.00292,N,A,3846880
L-00171,0.00289,N,A,2285754
L-00150,0.00289,N,A,2929601
L-00276,0.00286,N,A,564124
L-00634,0.00924,N,BBB,4609250
L-00522,0.00917,N,BBB,1100261
L-00928,0.02031,N,BB,3444558
L-01156,0.17451,N,CCC,4898863
L-00468,0.00895,N,BBB,496145
L-00926,0.01904,N,BB,1451327
L-00769,0.01905,N,BB,2692359
L-01068,0.05314,N,B,964484
L-00165,0.00303,N,A,2847092
L-00616,0.00848,N,BBB,3092029
L-00733,0.02098,N,BB,4718085
L-00227,0.00298,N,A,3047590
L-00432,0.00933,N,BBB,2261161
L-00478,0.00927,N,BBB,2967766
L-00533,0.00916,N,BBB,2019708
L-00610,0.00923,N,BBB,3793505
L-00434,0.00892,N,BBB,2607150
L-01031,0.05540,N,B,4055926
L-01123,0.05644,N,B,1747822
L-00007,0.00295,N,A,1974039
L-00783,0.02059,N,BB,1955679
L-00743,0.02048,N,BB,499589
L-00888,0.02108,N,BB,3850751
L-00257,0.00316,N,A,4093078
L-01065,0.05431,N,B,272181
L-00642,0.00886,N,BBB,1232280
L-00246,0.00314,N,A,2074584
L-00343,0.00920,N,BBB,3664486
L-00530,0.00896,N,BBB,4830455
L-01176,0.17147,N,CCC,1561724
L-00347,0.00934,N,BBB,1813257
L-00218,0.00313,N,A,870565
L-00990,0.05473,N,B,694080
L-01148,0.18649,N,CCC,2440506
L-00445,0.00953,N,BBB,1800817
L-00497,0.00878,N,BBB,304945
L-00931,0.01974,N,BB,857756
L-00939,0.01890,N,BB,2579344
L-01093,0.05476,N,B,1416326
L-00439,0.00941,N,BBB,3342524
L-00839,0.02085,N,BB,2159345
L-01020,0.05353,N,B,1884688
L-00361,0.00904,N,BBB,3000887
L-00550,0.00942,N,BBB,468173
L-00400,0.00954,N,BBB,1867739
L-00614,0.00924,N,BBB,297329
L-00362,0.00895,N,BBB,1037401
L-01109,0.05407,N,B,3749464
L-01028,0.05532,N,B,3568586
L-01058,0.05420,N,B,1738486
L-00112,0.00292,N,A,4067603
L-00336,0.00879,N,BBB,3100438
L-00389,0.00885,N,BBB,2407808
L-00111,0.00316,N,A,2271073
L-00009,0.00300,N,A,1982693
L-00983,0.05688,N,B,2411243
L-00782,0.01943,N,BB,3513127
L-01160,0.18007,N,CCC,2036556
L-00079,0.00312,N,A,2753019
L-01089,0.05537,N,B,3236234
L-00054,0.00290,N,A,2569522
L-00652,0.02075,Y,BB,1836167
L-01197,0.17723,N,CCC,3494682
L-00275,0.00297,N,A,2532397
L-00236,0.00306,N,A,363527
L-00518,0.00920,N,BBB,1112981
L-00386,0.00940,N,BBB,4306403
L-00299,0.00309,N,A,2835517
L-00981,0.05421,N,B,2908656
L-00812,0.01993,N,BB,4152680
L-00195,0.00285,N,A,1107767
L-00523,0.00860,N,BBB,4301270
L-00470,0.00918,N,BBB,4982505
L-00493,0.00916,N,BBB,1121215
L-00600,0.00884,N,BBB,3478431
L-00615,0.00913,N,BBB,2208397
L-00010,0.00298,N,A,4246924
L-00481,0.00849,N,BBB,3845531
L-00184,0.00299,N,A,3500342
L-01102,0.05554,N,B,2401215
L-00174,0.00311,N,A,2485232
L-00674,0.02026,N,BB,4087955
L-00228,0.00293,N,A,4438865
L-00889,0.01928,N,BB,3297904
L-01141,0.17432,Y,CCC,810742
L-00625,0.00847,N,BBB,2371188
L-01117,0.05267,N,B,361487
L-00258,0.00312,N,A,1513120
L-00052,0.00292,N,A,1787170
L-00382,0.00918,N,BBB,4575177
L-01032,0.05813,N,B,3021221
L-00060,0.00318,N,A,4606042
L-00306,0.00850,N,BBB,3074309
L-00217,0.00308,N,A,4232799
L-00545,0.00866,N,BBB,4927522
L-00486,0.00846,N,BBB,813330
L-00546,0.00941,N,BBB,2808256
L-01119,0.05738,N,B,2511937
L-00244,0.00288,N,A,1076989
L-00982,0.05327,N,B,1975545
L-00885,0.01971,N,BB,3039091
L-01106,0.05641,N,B,3131442
L-00930,0.01951,N,BB,4443695
L-00879,0.02019,N,BB,2587403
L-00242,0.00306,N,A,1710410
L-00725,0.02114,N,BB,3274723
L-00163,0.00287,N,A,4358853
L-00965,0.05798,N,B,1527497
L-00730,0.01922,N,BB,266039
L-00262,0.00285,N,A,2088304
L-00501,0.00858,N,BBB,1666839
L-01149,0.17037,N,CCC,897116
L-00649,0.00934,N,BBB,1346108
L-00041,0.00313,N,A,1614613
L-00280,0.00305,N,A,3839664
L-00838,0.02077,N,BB,2080997
L-00936,0.02038,N,BB,733793
L-00333,0.00916,N,BBB,3347857
L-00260,0.00300,N,A,427671
L-00089,0.00304,N,A,768124
L-00528,0.00926,N,BBB,1227586
L-00211,0.00283,N,A,3813962
L-01153,0.17499,N,CCC,4109738
L-00284,0.00302,N,A,880953
L-00100,0.00292,N,A,536517
L-01077,0.05623,N,B,2401419
L-00558,0.00917,N,BBB,2150948
L-00748,0.01956,N,BB,3810102
L-00503,0.00893,N,BBB,542034
L-00329,0.00854,N,BBB,989872
L-00975,0.05710,N,B,882777
L-00256,0.00284,N,A,896783
L-01122,0.05649,N,B,4767650
L-00738,0.02035,N,BB,3283402
L-00407,0.00873,N,BBB,4992161
L-00325,0.00909,N,BBB,1819814
L-00721,0.01888,N,BB,1821879
L-00017,0.00312,N,A,3327325
L-00125,0.00298,N,A,4427768
L-00590,0.00924,N,BBB,4962064
L-00671,0.01933,N,BB,4218002
L-00710,0.02010,N,BB,1330423
L-00832,0.01913,N,BB,1373639
L-00267,0.00291,N,A,3609802
L-00620,0.00898,N,BBB,1408564
L-01192,0.17848,N,CCC,4193303
L-00391,0.00875,N,BBB,819986
L-00197,0.00293,N,A,459946
L-00027,0.00298,N,A,1831664
L-00913,0.01994,N,BB,3420342
L-00365,0.00934,N,BBB,2269691
L-01159,0.18115,N,CCC,1498894
L-00804,0.02063,N,BB,3144351
L-00966,0.05603,N,B,3306165
L-00385,0.00887,N,BBB,3772035
L-00532,0.00853,N,BBB,4212206
L-00685,0.02109,N,BB,3649374
L-00800,0.01938,N,BB,2158032
L-01110,0.05551,N,B,796033
L-00519,0.00908,N,BBB,3801238
L-00153,0.00318,N,A,482748
L-00148,0.00288,N,A,975777
L-00215,0.00306,N,A,4859742
L-00560,0.00886,N,BBB,2696382
L-00359,0.00914,N,BBB,358511
L-00456,0.00921,N,BBB,4914826
L-00438,0.00850,N,BBB,3677267
L-01098,0.05455,N,B,2254493
L-01108,0.05687,N,B,1209629
L-00919,0.02008,N,BB,4375504
L-00495,0.00937,N,BBB,4346604
L-00907,0.02102,N,BB,1201213
L-00300,0.00301,N,A,2066976
L-00571,0.00932,N,BBB,708180
L-00393,0.00874,N,BBB,3963508
L-00203,0.00283,N,A,1539754
L-01078,0.05324,N,B,4575288
L-00053,0.00285,N,A,4499447
L-01188,0.18690,N,CCC,4746482
L-00938,0.01987,N,BB,4600226
L-01087,0.05521,N,B,2381407
L-01059,0.05691,N,B,1153316
L-00562,0.00934,N,BBB,1492026
L-00192,0.00282,N,A,2940615
L-00758,0.01990,N,BB,3241560
L-00994,0.05561,N,B,4661100
L-00661,0.01926,Y,BB,4937046
L-00182,0.00284,N,A,4628890
L-00944,0.01957,N,BB,939943
L-01095,0.05423,N,B,1175438
L-00008,0.00316,N,A,764206
L-00348,0.00920,N,BBB,2991427
L-00512,0.00859,N,BBB,3586527
L-00719,0.02087,N,BB,2929049
L-00402,0.00887,N,BBB,727435
L-00172,0.00318,N,A,2998758
L-00968,0.05377,N,B,3315214
L-00395,0.00914,N,BBB,1420937
L-00098,0.00286,N,A,1358179
L-00120,0.00305,N,A,1357746
L-01024,0.05630,N,B,912121
L-00253,0.00297,N,A,1878885
L-01164,0.18859,N,CCC,1595288
L-00703,0.01950,N,BB,4457378
L-00752,0.01900,N,BB,1594455
L-00957,0.05268,Y,B,3763243
L-00492,0.00950,N,BBB,1814872
L-00047,0.00297,N,A,469973
L-00069,0.00295,N,A,388758
L-00553,0.00892,N,BBB,950355
L-00326,0.00892,N,BBB,1332517
L-01018,0.05731,N,B,3852385
L-00147,0.00284,N,A,2081332
L-00820,0.01999,N,BB,3667308
L-01076,0.05644,N,B,2561477
L-01118,0.05200,N,B,3343882
L-00876,0.01890,N,BB,1003861
L-00852,0.02027,N,BB,2182533
L-00117,0.00303,N,A,1761858
L-00744,0.02067,N,BB,1844046
L-01037,0.05434,N,B,2397896
L-00437,0.00936,N,BBB,4790743
L-00900,0.01888,N,BB,871351
L-00831,0.01886,N,BB,3263735
L-00249,0.00309,N,A,1166398
L-00491,0.00854,N,BBB,1670281
L-00927,0.02040,N,BB,1976398
L-00708,0.02074,N,BB,4671631
L-00861,0.02047,N,BB,659822
L-00958,0.05270,Y,B,782451
L-00841,0.02089,N,BB,503334
L-00214,0.00292,N,A,2728080
L-01064,0.05561,N,B,4645318
L-00204,0.00285,N,A,2486342
L-00066,0.00317,N,A,2876083
L-00561,0.00848,N,BBB,2829508
L-00081,0.00288,N,A,3967899
L-00425,0.00903,N,BBB,4680224
L-00123,0.00311,N,A,910894
L-00819,0.02012,N,BB,4724562
L-00886,0.01900,N,BB,767640
L-00475,0.00910,N,BBB,522011
L-01155,0.18073,N,CCC,3592426
L-01008,0.05488,N,B,367638
L-00375,0.00948,N,BBB,1878697
L-00986,0.05268,N,B,640443
L-00896,0.01901,N,BB,1251521
L-00698,0.01985,N,BB,2071636
L-00729,0.01976,N,BB,4649207
L-01074,0.05589,N,B,1239388
L-00471,0.00885,N,BBB,2704933
L-00189,0.00284,N,A,3541924
L-00370,0.00875,N,BBB,342623
L-00731,0.02073,N,BB,3461569
L-00515,0.00938,N,BBB,2128902
L-00514,0.00867,N,BBB,551332
L-00235,0.00302,N,A,3569076
L-00127,0.00310,N,A,2621691
L-00241,0.00311,N,A,2979422
L-01033,0.05823,N,B,2200595
L-00255,0.00307,N,A,4625687
L-00254,0.00296,N,A,1124262
L-00557,0.00950,N,BBB,1389730
L-00945,0.01956,N,BB,1908598
L-00504,0.00913,N,BBB,995065
L-00883,0.01905,N,BB,3990034
L-00032,0.00301,N,A,3871904
L-00788,0.02004,N,BB,3134642
L-00843,0.01962,N,BB,1116372
L-00423,0.00907,N,BBB,4169850
L-00310,0.00933,N,BBB,1336680
L-00013,0.00317,N,A,1589941
L-00104,0.00306,N,A,2151677
L-00967,0.05799,N,B,1939188
L-00290,0.00313,N,A,4873322
L-00129,0.00305,N,A,3504072
L-00039,0.00286,N,A,1510407
L-00714,0.02085,N,BB,4926730
L-00045,0.00304,N,A,376637
L-00996,0.05764,N,B,3525726
L-00576,0.00879,N,BBB,4340466
L-00443,0.00944,N,BBB,1500262
L-00324,0.00867,N,BBB,2674125
L-01158,0.17325,N,CCC,2452726
L-00791,0.02053,N,BB,836271
L-01157,0.16921,N,CCC,2827395
L-00272,0.00311,N,A,4694156
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L-01027,0.05304,N,B,1837496
L-00134,0.00286,N,A,4698014
L-01079,0.05747,N,B,1386740
L-00870,0.02105,N,BB,2693016
L-00750,0.01884,N,BB,4557363
L-00787,0.01923,N,BB,3409501
L-00668,0.02075,Y,BB,4674295
L-00940,0.02055,N,BB,4049190
L-00766,0.01899,N,BB,3265722
L-00265,0.00284,N,A,1300200
L-00113,0.00315,N,A,4751391
L-00653,0.02098,Y,BB,2124629
L-01114,0.05786,N,B,1442123
L-00513,0.00847,N,BBB,1650317
L-01177,0.18590,N,CCC,3531690
L-00904,0.01990,N,BB,1646252
L-00637,0.00895,N,BBB,2595181
L-00741,0.02084,N,BB,1814755
L-00551,0.00946,N,BBB,1643621
L-00774,0.02095,N,BB,1442284
L-00155,0.00311,N,A,3175039
L-00659,0.02113,Y,BB,1310548
L-00974,0.05711,N,B,2487251
L-00219,0.00300,N,A,1382686
L-00296,0.00312,N,A,1519932
L-00976,0.05731,N,B,822042
L-01166,0.18085,N,CCC,1550452
L-00092,0.00288,N,A,2861886
L-00868,0.02105,N,BB,3223567
L-00180,0.00286,N,A,4571634
L-00884,0.02033,N,BB,1375384
L-00644,0.00878,N,BBB,4438505
L-01167,0.18675,N,CCC,3805293
L-00085,0.00309,N,A,3863879
L-01125,0.05575,N,B,1504075
L-00973,0.05318,N,B,3597992
L-00157,0.00283,N,A,549647
L-00548,0.00871,N,BBB,560481
L-00516,0.00949,N,BBB,2984144
L-00520,0.00885,N,BBB,1769789
L-00080,0.00317,N,A,2660957
L-00626,0.00866,N,BBB,2045970
L-00863,0.02082,N,BB,3693894
L-00855,0.02094,N,BB,1834237
L-00096,0.00282,N,A,2020250
L-00116,0.00313,N,A,4078543
L-00198,0.00309,N,A,1886569
L-00285,0.00314,N,A,312924
L-00722,0.01895,N,BB,2969759
L-00023,0.00297,N,A,2511561
L-00506,0.00858,N,BBB,4443864
L-01183,0.18231,N,CCC,3423698
L-00686,0.01963,N,BB,3421651
L-01147,0.18756,N,CCC,1877833
L-00918,0.01959,N,BB,4872425
L-00208,0.00302,N,A,525847
L-00003,0.00291,N,A,3668111
L-00421,0.00934,N,BBB,3632068
L-00837,0.01913,N,BB,2333598
L-00178,0.00285,N,A,1409129
L-01071,0.05649,N,B,1067630
L-00935,0.02008,N,BB,4608056
L-00887,0.01892,N,BB,1954072
L-00702,0.02065,N,BB,1142462
L-00946,0.02027,N,BB,4352619
L-00128,0.00287,N,A,474862
L-01105,0.05666,N,B,271487
L-00802,0.02094,N,BB,971643
L-00749,0.02033,N,BB,1855347
L-01092,0.05765,N,B,3718071
L-00161,0.00313,N,A,607856
L-00656,0.02024,Y,BB,4258071
L-00479,0.00856,N,BBB,1324931
L-00083,0.00307,N,A,4570836
L-00087,0.00291,N,A,2431326
L-00014,0.00307,N,A,937088
L-00266,0.00310,N,A,1334756
L-00609,0.00877,N,BBB,2609148
L-00130,0.00301,N,A,4937106
L-00094,0.00289,N,A,3227070
L-00775,0.01903,N,BB,2343896
L-00867,0.01917,N,BB,1379358
L-00711,0.01885,N,BB,2726532
L-00250,0.00287,N,A,4080332
L-00961,0.05187,Y,B,4888721
L-01036,0.05719,N,B,4754285
L-01190,0.18502,N,CCC,2187782
L-00029,0.00286,N,A,1462746
L-00596,0.00908,N,BBB,3773540
L-00771,0.02014,N,BB,3014724
L-00897,0.02046,N,BB,4074868
L-01139,0.17838,Y,CCC,3232244
L-00403,0.00863,N,BBB,4731371
L-00906,0.02115,N,BB,276969
L-00345,0.00866,N,BBB,2018870
L-00268,0.00291,N,A,3778507
L-00701,0.01924,N,BB,4249590
L-00583,0.00889,N,BBB,4531375
L-00573,0.00848,N,BBB,1165531
L-01181,0.19052,N,CCC,4531904
L-00323,0.00935,N,BBB,2467105
L-00536,0.00937,N,BBB,1208815
L-01041,0.05371,N,B,4607048
L-00690,0.02064,N,BB,1213313
L-00756,0.01915,N,BB,3826966
L-00460,0.00912,N,BBB,1735913
L-00641,0.00943,N,BBB,1587300
L-00459,0.00906,N,BBB,1689368
L-00544,0.00948,N,BBB,762912
L-01115,0.05613,N,B,3566652
L-00435,0.00911,N,BBB,4707668
L-00508,0.00917,N,BBB,2282847
L-00464,0.00936,N,BBB,2369106
L-01034,0.05218,N,B,3914292
L-00597,0.00891,N,BBB,1512849
L-00717,0.01942,N,BB,273887
L-00864,0.01971,N,BB,2597592
L-00209,0.00293,N,A,1959575
L-00142,0.00314,N,A,1308686
L-00193,0.00305,N,A,2372292
L-00825,0.01981,N,BB,635585
L-00073,0.00297,N,A,485736
L-00396,0.00881,N,BBB,842746
L-00295,0.00282,N,A,2812640
L-00988,0.05432,N,B,666454
L-00124,0.00317,N,A,4621467
L-00706,0.02078,N,BB,434504
L-00418,0.00862,N,BBB,398170
L-01056,0.05341,N,B,2352895
L-00925,0.01925,N,BB,1853081
L-00065,0.00287,N,A,3443495
L-00273,0.00304,N,A,2650522
L-01132,0.17815,Y,CCC,4705542
L-00176,0.00297,N,A,453417
L-00672,0.02008,N,BB,1758942
L-01080,0.05620,N,B,603647
L-00024,0.00309,N,A,4899163
L-00509,0.00886,N,BBB,1853217
L-00817,0.01900,N,BB,4548144
L-00417,0.00853,N,BBB,4818255
L-00353,0.00902,N,BBB,3800772
L-00715,0.02039,N,BB,1334526
L-00487,0.00949,N,BBB,3447829
L-00140,0.00289,N,A,690083
L-00409,0.00895,N,BBB,4144733
L-00629,0.00862,N,BBB,3148727
L-00875,0.02020,N,BB,1104750
L-00237,0.00283,N,A,866027
L-01111,0.05595,N,B,3520827
L-01151,0.18776,N,CCC,2022861
L-01062,0.05172,N,B,2943110
L-00006,0.00304,N,A,1993254
L-00761,0.01923,N,BB,542874
L-00354,0.00857,N,BBB,4539740
L-00559,0.00902,N,BBB,3781619
L-00899,0.01936,N,BB,1348053
L-00699,0.02003,N,BB,1385688
L-00552,0.00915,N,BBB,4974223
L-00466,0.00944,N,BBB,1774492
L-01053,0.05767,N,B,1221492
L-00808,0.01895,N,BB,474352
L-00631,0.00945,N,BBB,702792
L-00207,0.00290,N,A,4580492
L-00057,0.00297,N,A,269434
L-00847,0.02027,N,BB,2947729
L-00170,0.00284,N,A,1489128
L-00960,0.05582,Y,B,2223333
L-01085,0.05221,N,B,3161588
L-01185,0.18349,N,CCC,2139517
L-01040,0.05469,N,B,2717112
L-01144,0.17832,N,CCC,4111969
L-00337,0.00931,N,BBB,3531436
L-00321,0.00874,N,BBB,3211351
L-00568,0.00952,N,BBB,1286686
L-01029,0.05247,N,B,1143834
L-00654,0.02051,Y,BB,2828129
L-00319,0.00892,N,BBB,2735727
L-00908,0.01921,N,BB,1295348
L-00724,0.01906,N,BB,674211
L-00790,0.01986,N,BB,1883945
L-00075,0.00302,N,A,1127339
L-00547,0.00881,N,BBB,884313
L-00948,0.02061,N,BB,4261739
L-01135,0.18194,Y,CCC,1659196
L-01013,0.05630,N,B,4416318
L-00422,0.00926,N,BBB,553503
L-01180,0.17440,N,CCC,428647
L-00015,0.00317,N,A,1818662
L-00737,0.01963,N,BB,3950996
L-01010,0.05373,N,B,4713913
L-00623,0.00896,N,BBB,3790452
L-00338,0.00934,N,BBB,2097490
L-00484,0.00864,N,BBB,795028
L-00220,0.00290,N,A,279570
L-01182,0.18888,N,CCC,3559524
L-01075,0.05607,N,B,2367300
L-00697,0.01933,N,BB,1349847
L-00293,0.00283,N,A,1147974
L-00712,0.01950,N,BB,4381164
L-00158,0.00294,N,A,4884180
L-00297,0.00312,N,A,3065473
L-01162,0.17845,N,CCC,4064783
L-00759,0.01983,N,BB,1470346
L-00160,0.00291,N,A,3099440
L-01131,0.17221,Y,CCC,1358878
L-00011,0.00303,N,A,3007628
L-00233,0.00289,N,A,3204061
L-01016,0.05601,N,B,3472701
L-00922,0.02105,N,BB,2749667
L-00912,0.02094,N,BB,3518460
L-00669,0.02023,N,BB,4254764
L-01186,0.18444,N,CCC,3840390
L-00603,0.00944,N,BBB,1368323
L-01006,0.05643,N,B,536208
L-00101,0.00299,N,A,2278051
L-00061,0.00284,N,A,1678995
L-00709,0.02109,N,BB,4725256
L-00587,0.00927,N,BBB,4395316
L-00660,0.01926,Y,BB,1740693
L-00056,0.00313,N,A,1621824
L-00693,0.02102,N,BB,3969361
L-00502,0.00848,N,BBB,3564352
L-00869,0.01984,N,BB,4207670
L-00457,0.00940,N,BBB,2391027
L-00168,0.00300,N,A,2005288
L-00371,0.00946,N,BBB,1839904
L-01129,0.05601,N,B,3099517
L-00131,0.00298,N,A,3611640
L-00063,0.00294,N,A,1325391
L-00110,0.00284,N,A,4759886
L-00964,0.05823,N,B,1889862
L-00316,0.00859,N,BBB,2181270
L-00121,0.00309,N,A,1561315
L-00331,0.00953,N,BBB,3607306
L-00126,0.00286,N,A,1172355
L-00308,0.00875,N,BBB,905155
L-00795,0.02104,N,BB,541221
L-00585,0.00888,N,BBB,1787405
L-00813,0.01910,N,BB,3505316
L-00271,0.00283,N,A,2875952
L-01107,0.05317,N,B,551058
L-00005,0.00318,N,A,4974115
L-01103,0.05530,N,B,593566
L-01025,0.05650,N,B,4844202
L-00763,0.02063,N,BB,3778468
L-01009,0.05674,N,B,1996336
L-00200,0.00283,N,A,2541200
L-00366,0.00951,N,BBB,2932243
L-00510,0.00900,N,BBB,3509476
L-00740,0.01928,N,BB,4448981
L-00632,0.00900,N,BBB,1721308
L-01140,0.18978,Y,CCC,3095954
L-00646,0.00893,N,BBB,966117
L-00448,0.00937,N,BBB,438236
L-00465,0.00921,N,BBB,3042857
L-00956,0.05214,Y,B,3601372
L-00379,0.00893,N,BBB,2131969
L-00834,0.02081,N,BB,4021436
L-00727,0.02095,N,BB,2680433
L-00894,0.02108,N,BB,2306419
L-00368,0.00917,N,BBB,423458
L-01113,0.05251,N,B,4859607
L-00842,0.01906,N,BB,546254
L-01152,0.17398,N,CCC,1682812
L-00499,0.00881,N,BBB,2984088
L-00707,0.01970,N,BB,1966171
L-00426,0.00880,N,BBB,2718279
L-00648,0.00869,N,BBB,4879911
L-00963,0.05493,N,B,3160175
L-01070,0.05496,N,B,3661403
L-00777,0.01953,N,BB,3784151
L-00903,0.01983,N,BB,874052
L-01014,0.05650,N,B,3481206
L-00893,0.01924,N,BB,1135583
L-01021,0.05793,N,B,1902771
L-00489,0.00853,N,BBB,273406
L-01039,0.05451,N,B,4728118
L-00035,0.00313,N,A,3050612
L-00754,0.02031,N,BB,3335853
L-00351,0.00890,N,BBB,1093270
L-00621,0.00907,N,BBB,1279976
L-00286,0.00300,N,A,3345116
L-00373,0.00851,N,BBB,3514649
L-01199,0.17820,N,CCC,3010127
L-00987,0.05583,N,B,3076358
L-00570,0.00861,N,BBB,2888924
L-00420,0.00926,N,BBB,3860687
L-00951,0.05570,Y,B,4186179
L-00593,0.00856,N,BBB,4353213
L-00288,0.00313,N,A,542536
L-00474,0.00944,N,BBB,2717747
L-00535,0.00861,N,BBB,253974
L-00683,0.02018,N,BB,2095311
L-00344,0.00857,N,BBB,2271649
L-00651,0.02073,Y,BB,1860178
L-00394,0.00953,N,BBB,1921862
L-01120,0.05519,N,B,3160360
L-00427,0.00860,N,BBB,4372448
L-00102,0.00306,N,A,904210
L-00411,0.00868,N,BBB,3813525
L-00569,0.00859,N,BBB,3733160
L-00463,0.00900,N,BBB,4953287
L-00664,0.01935,Y,BB,640072
L-00226,0.00293,N,A,1807121
L-00978,0.05363,N,B,682543
L-00989,0.05668,N,B,4254497
L-01163,0.18007,N,CCC,1819042
L-00793,0.02052,N,BB,1114586
L-00565,0.00941,N,BBB,4125360
L-00746,0.01941,N,BB,1739434
L-00225,0.00307,N,A,3365494
L-00873,0.01972,N,BB,1288869
L-00713,0.02049,N,BB,3038383
L-00378,0.00894,N,BBB,4762350
L-00726,0.02076,N,BB,3939993
L-00915,0.01881,N,BB,3693863
L-00151,0.00316,N,A,480329
L-00933,0.02112,N,BB,4338066
L-00301,0.00878,Y,BBB,2721837
L-00846,0.01992,N,BB,3140654
L-00238,0.00288,N,A,4861209
L-00821,0.01887,N,BB,3432121
L-00294,0.00312,N,A,4601707
L-00210,0.00293,N,A,4221742
L-00853,0.02025,N,BB,870201
L-01142,0.18980,Y,CCC,3366631
L-00902,0.02032,N,BB,4025859
L-00355,0.00944,N,BBB,3062656
L-01066,0.05287,N,B,2328243
L-00700,0.01962,N,BB,435965
L-00785,0.01964,N,BB,3290383
L-00433,0.00853,N,BBB,252577
L-00728,0.02102,N,BB,1191785
L-00372,0.00910,N,BBB,1866679
L-00662,0.02036,Y,BB,4157170
L-00164,0.00299,N,A,2723502
L-00507,0.00907,N,BBB,2646108
L-01007,0.05296,N,B,4909257
L-01030,0.05308,N,B,701214
L-00611,0.00924,N,BBB,1025969
L-00453,0.00872,N,BBB,3577739
L-00021,0.00308,N,A,4202007
L-00594,0.00860,N,BBB,4737123
L-00181,0.00300,N,A,1712161
L-01026,0.05591,N,B,1984995
L-00622,0.00936,N,BBB,3670945
L-00135,0.00290,N,A,1390762
L-01022,0.05583,N,B,2768000
L-00264,0.00295,N,A,2423766
L-00810,0.02014,N,BB,1084596
L-00381,0.00886,N,BBB,2900909
L-00145,0.00284,N,A,2163675
L-01072,0.05342,N,B,2698345
L-00097,0.00299,N,A,3430323
L-00251,0.00301,N,A,4423356
L-01161,0.17607,N,CCC,1147747
L-00428,0.00897,N,BBB,4982101
L-01143,0.18760,N,CCC,3257537
L-01196,0.18009,N,CCC,1132936
L-00103,0.00310,N,A,3756122
L-01134,0.17684,Y,CCC,3347385
L-01172,0.17459,N,CCC,2603020
L-00563,0.00951,N,BBB,3682838
L-00992,0.05791,N,B,1321977
L-00602,0.00939,N,BBB,2474567

This is an example book of 1,200 synthetic borrowers, not your data. It is here so the page shows what it does before you have fetched anything. Replace it when you are ready.

Read 1,200 rows and 5 columns.

Which column is which

Corrected automatically where the heading is recognisable. Change anything that is wrong.

Exposure or borrower reference

Whatever identifies the account. Used only to report which rows failed.

PD predicted at the start of the period *

The probability of default the model gave BEFORE the outcome was known. A PD refreshed during the period tests hindsight, not prediction.

Did it default? *

What actually happened by the end of the period.

Rating grade at the start

Lets the test run per grade. Without it only a portfolio-level result is possible, and a portfolio total can net an understated grade against an overstated one.

Exposure amount

Used to weight the average predicted PD. Rows count equally without it.

The PD column is being read as decimals

Every value sits in the decimal range. Read the wrong way round, a model would look a hundred times more conservative than it is and pass every test on this page.

Can it tell good from bad?

Whether the model RANKS risk. A model that cannot rank is not repairable by recalibration.

Passed

Gini 0.568, confidence interval from 0.408 to 0.729, on 45 defaults. The model separates defaulting from performing obligors.

Gini

0.568

AUC

0.7842

95% interval

0.704 – 0.865

0.522

Defaults observed

Default rate

3.75%

Are the levels right?

Whether the PDs match what happened — tested per grade, because a total can net an understated grade against an overstated one.

Failed

The portfolio total is acceptable, but 1 grade (BB) understate default risk at the 1% level. A total that nets out an understated grade against an overstated one is not a calibrated model.

Grade	Borrowers	Defaults	Predicted	Observed	Jeffreys p
A	300	1	0.30%	0.33%	0.3847	Passed
BBB	350	3	0.90%	0.86%	0.4931	Passed
BB	300	18	2.00%	6.00%	<0.0001	Failed
B	180	11	5.51%	6.11%	0.3453	Passed
CCC	70	12	18.08%	17.14%	0.5680	Passed

Hosmer–Lemeshow p

0.0002

Spiegelhalter p

0.0084

Brier score

0.03473

— calibration error

0.00041

— resolution

0.00179

Correlation assumption

Used for the bound that allows for defaults arriving together rather than independently.

0.15Set this to the asset correlation your PDs were built with. Higher correlation means a bad year is less surprising, so the test is more forgiving — which is why it must match the measurement rather than be chosen here.