The allowance
IFRS 9 expected credit loss · Demonstration entity · Reporting date 2026-06-30
- Run
- 255574d8f14f40b7
- Portfolio hash
- 62d0c3ebee97
- Config hash
- b8617338aa94
- Engine
- v0.1.0
- Method
- Expert / benchmark PD
Scenario weights
Weights are not normalised automatically. Adjusting one and silently rebalancing the others would change a governance-approved parameter nobody touched.
Scenario severity
The systematic factor Z, in standard-normal units. Negative is stress. The base case sits above zero because the modal economy is better than the mean one.
Policy and adjustments
IFRS 9.5.5.11 presumes 30 days. Raising it rebuts the presumption and blocks review until the supporting evidence is recorded.
Reported as its own component, never merged into the modelled figure.
Scenario sensitivity
Allowance if each scenario were weighted 100%. A wide spread means most of the number rests on the weighting judgement rather than on the data — which a reader is entitled to know.
| Scenario | Weight | Z | LGD × | ECL at 100% | vs reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Downside Recession scenario. Severity is set so the weighted set reproduces the through-the-cycle default rate. Replace with the entity's own approved stress narrative. | 30% | -1.40 | 1.25 | $17,751,451 | +97.5% |
Base Central forecast — the most likely state, which sits above the long-run average because the loss distribution is right-skewed. Replace with the entity's own approved macro baseline. | 50% | 0.40 | 1.00 | $5,791,542 | -35.6% |
Upside Expansion scenario. Replace with the entity's own approved upside narrative. | 20% | 1.20 | 0.90 | $3,833,700 | -57.3% |
| Probability-weighted (reported model output) | 100% | — | — | $8,987,947 | — |
Stage analysis — general approach
Gross carrying amount and loss allowance by stage (IFRS 7.35M).
| Stage | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stage 112-month ECL | 85 | $406.96M | $440.53M | $3,252,554 | 0.80% |
Stage 2Lifetime ECL, not credit-impaired | 27 | $93.78M | $98M | $3,933,808 | 4.19% |
Stage 3Lifetime ECL, credit-impaired | 5 | $2.4M | $2.41M | $1,491,499 | 62.12% |
| Total — general approach | 117 | $503.14M | $540.94M | $8,677,861 | 1.72% |
Sector analysis
Asset correlation ρ is shown because it is what makes each sector respond differently to the same macro scenario. Holding ρ constant across a book is the standard model's most consequential simplification.
| Sector | ρ | Count | Gross | Allowance | Coverage | Primary macro drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial real estateuncalibrated | 0.25 | 8 | $76.79M | $3,816,018 | 4.97% | Commercial property prices · Vacancy rate · Policy rate |
| Servicesuncalibrated | 0.15 | 37 | $15.28M | $1,519,094 | 9.94% | GDP growth · Consumer spending · Unemployment |
| Energy and resourcesuncalibrated | 0.22 | 5 | $65.45M | $1,337,867 | 2.04% | Commodity prices · GDP growth · FX rate |
| Corporateuncalibrated | 0.18 | 27 | $158.87M | $1,111,827 | 0.70% | GDP growth · Credit spreads · Equity index |
| SMEuncalibrated | 0.12 | 16 | $5.33M | $575,359 | 10.80% | GDP growth · Business insolvencies · Policy rate |
| Agricultureuncalibrated | 0.14 | 7 | $3.17M | $256,125 | 8.08% | Crop prices · Rainfall index · Input cost index |
| Manufacturinguncalibrated | 0.19 | 7 | $21.88M | $149,702 | 0.68% | Industrial production · GDP growth · Export demand |
| Financial institutionsuncalibrated | 0.24 | 4 | $37.35M | $113,005 | 0.30% | Bank credit spreads · Policy rate · GDP growth |
| Retail unsecureduncalibrated | 0.04 | 18 | $338.2K | $54,378 | 16.08% | Unemployment · Real household income · Inflation |
| Retail mortgageuncalibrated | 0.15 | 14 | $4.73M | $44,808 | 0.95% | House price index · Unemployment · Policy rate |
| Sovereign and public sectoruncalibrated | 0.20 | 5 | $119.89M | $9,764 | 0.01% | Sovereign spread · Fiscal balance · FX reserves |
Ageing analysis — simplified approach
Trade receivables and contract assets carry lifetime ECL from initial recognition and are never staged. Reported by ageing band, which is what IFRS 7 contemplates for them.
| Ageing band | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 90 days | 3 | $494.4K | $494.4K | $173,040 | 35.00% |
| 61–90 days | 3 | $512.4K | $512.4K | $61,488 | 12.00% |
| 31–60 days | 5 | $735.6K | $735.6K | $36,780 | 5.00% |
| 1–30 days | 8 | $1.78M | $1.78M | $26,676 | 1.50% |
| Current | 12 | $2.42M | $2.42M | $12,102 | 0.50% |
| Total — simplified approach | 31 | $5.94M | $5.94M | $310,086 | 5.22% |
Asset category analysis
Coverage is shown against EAD as well as gross, because off-balance-sheet items — guarantees and undrawn commitments — carry real credit exposure with little or no carrying amount.
| Asset category | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage / EAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term loans | 74 | $305.27M | $305.27M | $8,049,339 | 2.64% |
| Trade receivables | 31 | $5.94M | $5.94M | $310,086 | 5.22% |
| Debt securities (FVOCI) | 4 | $37.35M | $37.35M | $113,005 | 0.30% |
| Financial guarantees | 5 | $0 | $11.62M | $111,459 | 0.96% |
| Loan commitments | 4 | $0 | $11.63M | $104,364 | 0.90% |
| Revolving facilities | 6 | $24.05M | $38.38M | $102,979 | 0.27% |
| Overdrafts | 6 | $534.5K | $667.88K | $96,780 | 14.49% |
| Intercompany loans | 3 | $15.93M | $15.93M | $58,780 | 0.37% |
| Credit cards | 10 | $120.1K | $201.83K | $31,392 | 15.55% |
| Debt securities (amortised cost) | 5 | $119.89M | $119.89M | $9,764 | 0.01% |
Readiness
Calculation blockers stop a result being produced at all. Review blockers allow one to be explored but never submitted for approval — a tool that will approve an allowance built on uncalibrated parameters is worse than a spreadsheet.
- Blocks reviewSector RETAIL_MORTGAGE is still using shipped illustrative parameters. (11 exposures)Replace the PD curve, asset correlation, recovery and cure rates with the institution's own experience, and record the basis. These defaults exist to make the model explorable, not reportable.
- Blocks reviewProvision matrix "default-retail_mortgage" has no documented basis for its loss rates. (11 exposures)Record how the rates were derived. An ageing snapshot alone does not establish a loss rate — that requires cohorts tracked to resolution, with collections, write-offs, recoveries and a stated treatment of incomplete outcomes.
- Blocks review117 of 148 exposures have no origination-date PD expectation, so the SICR benchmark is rebuilt from today's macro forecast. Today's forecast then appears on both sides of the comparison and cancels: the quantitative test returns a 1.00x increase for every exposure whose rating has not moved, and no macroeconomic deterioration — of any severity — can transfer anything to stage 2.Supply the lifetime PD recorded at initial recognition on each exposure (originationLifetimePd), or set originationScenarios on the configuration to the macro set that stood when the book was written. Until one of those exists, treat staging as driven by rating migration and past-due status alone, and say so in the disclosure.
- Blocks reviewThe configuration claims the rating vasicek methodology; the calculation actually used expert benchmark. The tier reported has been reduced to what the run did.Record how the rates were derived, so the stronger claim is supported, or set the tier to what the calculation used. A methodology stated on a disclosure is a representation about how the figures were produced.
Exposures
Ranked by allowance. Every reported figure decomposes to a single instrument — select a row for the stage reasoning behind it.
| Exposure | Sector | Stage / band | Gross | EAD | 12m PD | Lifetime PD | LGD | Allowance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRE-INV-006 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 2 | $14.9M | $14.9M | 36.72% | 67.27% | 25.5% | $2,396,115 |
| SVC-TL-006 | Services Term loans | Stage 3 | $1.52M | $1.52M | 100.00% | 100.00% | 71.7% | $1,087,004 |
| CRE-INV-004 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $6.27M | $6.27M | 36.72% | 61.20% | 32.6% | $760,783 |
| ENR-TL-001 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 1 | $5.09M | $5.09M | 34.36% | 49.23% | 39.8% | $706,099 |
| ENR-TL-002 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 2 | $11.72M | $11.72M | 4.92% | 15.25% | 30.2% | $393,438 |
| SME-TL-009 | SME Term loans | Stage 3 | $651.7K | $651.7K | 100.00% | 100.00% | 50.9% | $331,514 |
| CORP-TL-008 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 1 | $17.65M | $17.65M | 3.50% | 10.21% | 46.4% | $313,771 |
| CORP-TL-007 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 1 | $14.96M | $14.96M | 3.50% | 10.99% | 46.4% | $265,271 |
| CRE-INV-003 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $12.56M | $12.56M | 5.30% | 16.15% | 29.4% | $211,401 |
| CRE-INV-005 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $10.73M | $10.73M | 5.30% | 15.85% | 33.5% | $208,532 |
| ENR-TL-003 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 2 | $16.57M | $16.57M | 1.27% | 6.43% | 30.6% | $203,962 |
| CRE-INV-002 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 2 | $13.59M | $13.59M | 1.36% | 4.41% | 31.4% | $191,766 |
| AGR-TL-003 | Agriculture Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.12M | $1.12M | 39.53% | 59.14% | 34.1% | $186,285 |
| AR-030 | Services Trade receivables | Over 90 days | $325.3K | $325.3K | — | — | — | $113,855 |
| SME-TL-008 | SME Term loans | Stage 1 | $777.4K | $777.4K | 44.57% | 68.47% | 29.1% | $100,205 |
| FI-SNR-004 | Financial institutions Debt securities (FVOCI) | Stage 2 | $14.99M | $14.99M | 0.013% | 1.54% | 47.5% | $96,028 |
| SVC-TL-004 | Services Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.73M | $1.73M | 4.52% | 11.81% | 56.0% | $86,793 |
| GTEE-PERF-002 | Corporate Financial guarantees | Stage 2 | $0 | $2.97M | 3.50% | 5.65% | 46.4% | $83,222 |
| CORP-TL-006 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 1 | $15.97M | $15.97M | 0.899% | 4.73% | 46.4% | $73,167 |
| MFG-TL-005 | Manufacturing Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.92M | $1.92M | 4.20% | 10.95% | 33.5% | $55,847 |
| CORP-RCF-002 | Corporate Revolving facilities | Stage 2 | $2.75M | $3.93M | 0.899% | 2.85% | 46.4% | $53,873 |
| COMMIT-UND-003 | Corporate Loan commitments | Stage 1 | $0 | $3M | 3.50% | 7.16% | 46.4% | $53,101 |
| SME-OD-003 | SME Overdrafts | Stage 1 | $176.5K | $209.98K | 44.57% | 65.12% | 55.4% | $49,852 |
| IC-LOAN-002 | Corporate Intercompany loans | Stage 2 | $5.85M | $5.85M | 0.899% | 1.62% | 46.4% | $48,473 |
| MTG-RES-010 | Retail mortgage Term loans | Stage 3 | $207.6K | $207.6K | 100.00% | 100.00% | 21.3% | $44,142 |