WorkspaceAllowance analysis

The allowance

IFRS 9 expected credit loss · Demonstration entity · Reporting date 2026-06-30

Result currentNot ready for review · 24 reasons
Run
255574d8f14f40b7
Portfolio hash
62d0c3ebee97
Config hash
b8617338aa94
Engine
v0.1.0
Method
Expert / benchmark PD
Synthetic demonstration data. The portfolio, PD curves, asset correlations, recovery rates and macro scenarios are illustrative and internally consistent — they are not benchmarks and not any institution’s experience.Model parameters →Guided assessment →
Gross carrying amount
$509.08M
148 exposures
Exposure at default
$546.88M
Drawn + CCF-weighted undrawn
Loss allowance
$8.99M
Probability-weighted
Coverage ratio
1.77%
Allowance / gross carrying amount

Scenario weights

Weights are not normalised automatically. Adjusting one and silently rebalancing the others would change a governance-approved parameter nobody touched.

30%
Z = -1.40 · LGD ×1.25
50%
Z = 0.40 · LGD ×1.00
20%
Z = 1.20 · LGD ×0.90
Weights total 100%

Scenario severity

The systematic factor Z, in standard-normal units. Negative is stress. The base case sits above zero because the modal economy is better than the mean one.

-1.40
0.40
1.20

Policy and adjustments

IFRS 9.5.5.11 presumes 30 days. Raising it rebuts the presumption and blocks review until the supporting evidence is recorded.

Reported as its own component, never merged into the modelled figure.

Scenario sensitivity

Allowance if each scenario were weighted 100%. A wide spread means most of the number rests on the weighting judgement rather than on the data — which a reader is entitled to know.

ScenarioWeightZLGD ×ECL at 100%vs reported
Downside
Recession scenario. Severity is set so the weighted set reproduces the through-the-cycle default rate. Replace with the entity's own approved stress narrative.
30%-1.401.25$17,751,451+97.5%
Base
Central forecast — the most likely state, which sits above the long-run average because the loss distribution is right-skewed. Replace with the entity's own approved macro baseline.
50%0.401.00$5,791,542-35.6%
Upside
Expansion scenario. Replace with the entity's own approved upside narrative.
20%1.200.90$3,833,700-57.3%
Probability-weighted (reported model output)100%$8,987,947
Standalone figures are model output only; management overlays and regulatory floors do not vary by scenario and are shown separately.

Stage analysis — general approach

Gross carrying amount and loss allowance by stage (IFRS 7.35M).

StageCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage
Stage 112-month ECL
85$406.96M$440.53M$3,252,5540.80%
Stage 2Lifetime ECL, not credit-impaired
27$93.78M$98M$3,933,8084.19%
Stage 3Lifetime ECL, credit-impaired
5$2.4M$2.41M$1,491,49962.12%
Total — general approach117$503.14M$540.94M$8,677,8611.72%
31 simplified-approach instruments are excluded from this table. They have no stage allocation, so presenting one for them would describe a model this entity does not operate for those assets. They appear in the ageing analysis instead.

Sector analysis

Asset correlation ρ is shown because it is what makes each sector respond differently to the same macro scenario. Holding ρ constant across a book is the standard model's most consequential simplification.

SectorρCountGrossAllowanceCoveragePrimary macro drivers
Commercial real estateuncalibrated0.258$76.79M$3,816,0184.97%Commercial property prices · Vacancy rate · Policy rate
Servicesuncalibrated0.1537$15.28M$1,519,0949.94%GDP growth · Consumer spending · Unemployment
Energy and resourcesuncalibrated0.225$65.45M$1,337,8672.04%Commodity prices · GDP growth · FX rate
Corporateuncalibrated0.1827$158.87M$1,111,8270.70%GDP growth · Credit spreads · Equity index
SMEuncalibrated0.1216$5.33M$575,35910.80%GDP growth · Business insolvencies · Policy rate
Agricultureuncalibrated0.147$3.17M$256,1258.08%Crop prices · Rainfall index · Input cost index
Manufacturinguncalibrated0.197$21.88M$149,7020.68%Industrial production · GDP growth · Export demand
Financial institutionsuncalibrated0.244$37.35M$113,0050.30%Bank credit spreads · Policy rate · GDP growth
Retail unsecureduncalibrated0.0418$338.2K$54,37816.08%Unemployment · Real household income · Inflation
Retail mortgageuncalibrated0.1514$4.73M$44,8080.95%House price index · Unemployment · Policy rate
Sovereign and public sectoruncalibrated0.205$119.89M$9,7640.01%Sovereign spread · Fiscal balance · FX reserves

Ageing analysis — simplified approach

Trade receivables and contract assets carry lifetime ECL from initial recognition and are never staged. Reported by ageing band, which is what IFRS 7 contemplates for them.

Ageing bandCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage
Over 90 days3$494.4K$494.4K$173,04035.00%
61–90 days3$512.4K$512.4K$61,48812.00%
31–60 days5$735.6K$735.6K$36,7805.00%
1–30 days8$1.78M$1.78M$26,6761.50%
Current12$2.42M$2.42M$12,1020.50%
Total — simplified approach31$5.94M$5.94M$310,0865.22%

Asset category analysis

Coverage is shown against EAD as well as gross, because off-balance-sheet items — guarantees and undrawn commitments — carry real credit exposure with little or no carrying amount.

Asset categoryCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage / EAD
Term loans74$305.27M$305.27M$8,049,3392.64%
Trade receivables31$5.94M$5.94M$310,0865.22%
Debt securities (FVOCI)4$37.35M$37.35M$113,0050.30%
Financial guarantees5$0$11.62M$111,4590.96%
Loan commitments4$0$11.63M$104,3640.90%
Revolving facilities6$24.05M$38.38M$102,9790.27%
Overdrafts6$534.5K$667.88K$96,78014.49%
Intercompany loans3$15.93M$15.93M$58,7800.37%
Credit cards10$120.1K$201.83K$31,39215.55%
Debt securities (amortised cost)5$119.89M$119.89M$9,7640.01%

Readiness

Calculation blockers stop a result being produced at all. Review blockers allow one to be explored but never submitted for approval — a tool that will approve an allowance built on uncalibrated parameters is worse than a spreadsheet.

  • Blocks review
    Sector RETAIL_MORTGAGE is still using shipped illustrative parameters. (11 exposures)
    Replace the PD curve, asset correlation, recovery and cure rates with the institution's own experience, and record the basis. These defaults exist to make the model explorable, not reportable.
  • Blocks review
    Provision matrix "default-retail_mortgage" has no documented basis for its loss rates. (11 exposures)
    Record how the rates were derived. An ageing snapshot alone does not establish a loss rate — that requires cohorts tracked to resolution, with collections, write-offs, recoveries and a stated treatment of incomplete outcomes.
  • Blocks review
    117 of 148 exposures have no origination-date PD expectation, so the SICR benchmark is rebuilt from today's macro forecast. Today's forecast then appears on both sides of the comparison and cancels: the quantitative test returns a 1.00x increase for every exposure whose rating has not moved, and no macroeconomic deterioration — of any severity — can transfer anything to stage 2.
    Supply the lifetime PD recorded at initial recognition on each exposure (originationLifetimePd), or set originationScenarios on the configuration to the macro set that stood when the book was written. Until one of those exists, treat staging as driven by rating migration and past-due status alone, and say so in the disclosure.
  • Blocks review
    The configuration claims the rating vasicek methodology; the calculation actually used expert benchmark. The tier reported has been reduced to what the run did.
    Record how the rates were derived, so the stronger claim is supported, or set the tier to what the calculation used. A methodology stated on a disclosure is a representation about how the figures were produced.

Exposures

Ranked by allowance. Every reported figure decomposes to a single instrument — select a row for the stage reasoning behind it.

25 of 148
ExposureSectorStage / bandGrossEAD12m PDLifetime PDLGDAllowance
CRE-INV-006Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 2$14.9M$14.9M36.72%67.27%25.5%$2,396,115
SVC-TL-006Services
Term loans
Stage 3$1.52M$1.52M100.00%100.00%71.7%$1,087,004
CRE-INV-004Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$6.27M$6.27M36.72%61.20%32.6%$760,783
ENR-TL-001Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 1$5.09M$5.09M34.36%49.23%39.8%$706,099
ENR-TL-002Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 2$11.72M$11.72M4.92%15.25%30.2%$393,438
SME-TL-009SME
Term loans
Stage 3$651.7K$651.7K100.00%100.00%50.9%$331,514
CORP-TL-008Corporate
Term loans
Stage 1$17.65M$17.65M3.50%10.21%46.4%$313,771
CORP-TL-007Corporate
Term loans
Stage 1$14.96M$14.96M3.50%10.99%46.4%$265,271
CRE-INV-003Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$12.56M$12.56M5.30%16.15%29.4%$211,401
CRE-INV-005Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$10.73M$10.73M5.30%15.85%33.5%$208,532
ENR-TL-003Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 2$16.57M$16.57M1.27%6.43%30.6%$203,962
CRE-INV-002Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 2$13.59M$13.59M1.36%4.41%31.4%$191,766
AGR-TL-003Agriculture
Term loans
Stage 2$1.12M$1.12M39.53%59.14%34.1%$186,285
AR-030Services
Trade receivables
Over 90 days$325.3K$325.3K$113,855
SME-TL-008SME
Term loans
Stage 1$777.4K$777.4K44.57%68.47%29.1%$100,205
FI-SNR-004Financial institutions
Debt securities (FVOCI)
Stage 2$14.99M$14.99M0.013%1.54%47.5%$96,028
SVC-TL-004Services
Term loans
Stage 2$1.73M$1.73M4.52%11.81%56.0%$86,793
GTEE-PERF-002Corporate
Financial guarantees
Stage 2$0$2.97M3.50%5.65%46.4%$83,222
CORP-TL-006Corporate
Term loans
Stage 1$15.97M$15.97M0.899%4.73%46.4%$73,167
MFG-TL-005Manufacturing
Term loans
Stage 2$1.92M$1.92M4.20%10.95%33.5%$55,847
CORP-RCF-002Corporate
Revolving facilities
Stage 2$2.75M$3.93M0.899%2.85%46.4%$53,873
COMMIT-UND-003Corporate
Loan commitments
Stage 1$0$3M3.50%7.16%46.4%$53,101
SME-OD-003SME
Overdrafts
Stage 1$176.5K$209.98K44.57%65.12%55.4%$49,852
IC-LOAN-002Corporate
Intercompany loans
Stage 2$5.85M$5.85M0.899%1.62%46.4%$48,473
MTG-RES-010Retail mortgage
Term loans
Stage 3$207.6K$207.6K100.00%100.00%21.3%$44,142