WorkspaceAllowance analysis

The allowance

IFRS 9 expected credit loss · Demonstration entity · Reporting date 2026-06-30

How this run is identified
Run
307f1c4485feed7e
Portfolio hash
63ceaf5de75a
Config hash
ab31008a7d5d
Engine
v0.3.0
Method
Expert / benchmark PD
Gross carrying amount
$509.08M
148 exposures
Exposure at default
$546.88M
Drawn balances, plus the part of undrawn limits expected to be used
Loss allowance
$13.48M
Probability-weighted
Coverage ratio
2.65%
Allowance / gross carrying amount
A worked example. The portfolio is invented — nobody’s borrowers, sized so every part of the model has something to do. What sits behind it is real: default rates by grade from Crisil Ratings, FY1989 to FY2025, sector sensitivity following the Basel framework, and this tool’s starting values for recovery, cure and undrawn usage. Bring your own file and only the first sentence changes.Model parameters →Guided assessment →
The assumptions behind this figureHow the economic scenarios are weighted and how severe each is, the days-overdue trigger, any manual adjustment, and what the allowance would be under each scenario on its own.

Scenario weights

Weights are not normalised automatically. Adjusting one and silently rebalancing the others would change a governance-approved parameter nobody touched.

30%
Z = -1.40 · LGD ×1.25
50%
Z = 0.40 · LGD ×1.00
20%
Z = 1.20 · LGD ×0.90
Weights total 100%

Scenario severity

The systematic factor Z, in standard-normal units. Negative is stress. The base case sits above zero because the modal economy is better than the mean one.

-1.40
0.40
1.20

Policy and adjustments

IFRS 9.5.5.11 presumes 30 days. Raising it rebuts the presumption and blocks review until the supporting evidence is recorded.

Reported as its own component, never merged into the modelled figure.

Scenario sensitivity

Allowance if each scenario were weighted 100%. A wide spread means most of the number rests on the weighting judgement rather than on the data — which a reader is entitled to know.

ScenarioWeightZLGD ×ECL at 100%vs reported
Downside
Recession scenario. Severity is set so the weighted set reproduces the through-the-cycle default rate. Replace with the entity's own approved stress narrative.
30%-1.401.25$29,401,830+118.2%
Base
Central forecast — the most likely state, which sits above the long-run average because the loss distribution is right-skewed. Replace with the entity's own approved macro baseline.
50%0.401.00$7,520,875-44.2%
Upside
Expansion scenario. Replace with the entity's own approved upside narrative.
20%1.200.90$4,477,302-66.8%
Probability-weighted (reported model output)100%——$13,476,447—
Standalone figures are model output only; management overlays and regulatory floors do not vary by scenario and are shown separately.

Stage analysis — general approach

Gross carrying amount and loss allowance by stage, as IFRS 7 paragraph 35M asks.

StageCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage
Stage 112-month ECL
80$380.61M$414.17M$5,116,9731.34%
Stage 2Lifetime ECL, not credit-impaired
32$120.13M$124.36M$6,574,3085.47%
Stage 3Lifetime ECL, credit-impaired
5$2.4M$2.41M$1,475,08161.43%
Total — general approach117$503.14M$540.94M$13,166,3622.62%
31 simplified-approach instruments are excluded from this table. They have no stage allocation, so presenting one for them would describe a model this entity does not operate for those assets. They appear in the ageing analysis instead.

Ageing analysis — simplified approach

Trade receivables and contract assets carry lifetime ECL from initial recognition and are never staged. Reported by ageing band, which is what IFRS 7 contemplates for them.

Ageing bandCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage
Current12$2.42M$2.42M$12,1020.50%
1–30 days8$1.78M$1.78M$26,6761.50%
31–60 days5$735.6K$735.6K$36,7805.00%
61–90 days3$512.4K$512.4K$61,48812.00%
Over 90 days3$494.4K$494.4K$173,04035.00%
Total — simplified approach31$5.94M$5.94M$310,0865.22%

What to know before you file this

Some of these stop a figure being produced at all. The rest stop nothing — they are facts about what the number rests on, and they go into the working paper so whoever reads it sees what you saw.

  • Must be disclosed
    Nobody has taken responsibility for the Retail mortgage parameters. (11 exposures)
    Either replace them with your own experience and record the basis, or adopt the starting model as your own estimate — which needs a name and a date against it, not a tick. A published study considered and adopted is an estimate; the same study used because nobody looked is not.
  • Must be disclosed
    The provision matrix for Services has no documented basis for its loss rates.
    Record how the rates were derived. An ageing snapshot alone does not establish a loss rate — that requires cohorts tracked to resolution, with collections, write-offs, recoveries and a stated treatment of incomplete outcomes.
  • Observation
    117 of 117 loans have no record of how likely they were to default when they were made. So whether their risk has risen since is judged from the rating they started on, against today's economic forecast. A downgraded loan still moves to lifetime losses on that comparison; a worse economy on its own cannot move anything, because today's forecast sits on both sides of it. The 30-days-past-due rule, forbearance and watchlist still apply as normal.
    Add a "Lifetime PD at origination" column to the file — the probability of default recorded when each loan was made — and the economic half of the test starts working. Until then, say in the note that an increase in credit risk is judged on arrears, rating changes and forbearance, not on changes in the economic outlook.
Break it down furtherBy sector and by product, and every exposure behind the figure with the rates that drove it.

Sector analysis

How strongly each sector moves with the wider economy (ρ) is what makes the same downturn cost them differently. Using one figure for a whole book is the standard model's most consequential simplification.

SectorρCountGrossAllowanceCoveragePrimary macro drivers
Commercial real estateour starting rates0.258$76.79M$4,487,6685.84%Commercial property prices · Vacancy rate · Policy rate
Corporateour starting rates0.1827$158.87M$3,587,4742.26%GDP growth · Credit spreads · Equity index
Energy and resourcesour starting rates0.225$65.45M$2,030,2523.10%Commodity prices · GDP growth · FX rate
Servicesour starting rates0.1537$15.28M$1,685,39911.03%GDP growth · Consumer spending · Unemployment
SMEour starting rates0.1216$5.33M$646,43012.13%GDP growth · Business insolvencies · Policy rate
Manufacturingour starting rates0.197$21.88M$385,8511.76%Industrial production · GDP growth · Export demand
Agricultureour starting rates0.147$3.17M$274,5948.67%Crop prices · Rainfall index · Input cost index
Financial institutionsour starting rates0.244$37.35M$236,3130.63%Bank credit spreads · Policy rate · GDP growth
Retail unsecuredour starting rates0.0418$338.2K$66,07319.54%Unemployment · Real household income · Inflation
Retail mortgageour starting rates0.1514$4.73M$39,9420.84%House price index · Unemployment · Policy rate
Sovereign and public sectorour starting rates0.205$119.89M$36,4500.03%Sovereign spread · Fiscal balance · FX reserves

Asset category analysis

Coverage is shown against EAD as well as gross, because off-balance-sheet items — guarantees and undrawn commitments — carry real credit exposure with little or no carrying amount.

Asset categoryCountGrossEADAllowanceCoverage / EAD
Term loans74$305.27M$305.27M$11,733,4973.84%
Revolving facilities6$24.05M$38.38M$314,7440.82%
Trade receivables31$5.94M$5.94M$310,0865.22%
Loan commitments4$0$11.63M$262,5512.26%
Financial guarantees5$0$11.62M$259,3392.23%
Debt securities (FVOCI)4$37.35M$37.35M$236,3130.63%
Intercompany loans3$15.93M$15.93M$182,2121.14%
Overdrafts6$534.5K$667.88K$107,98816.17%
Debt securities (amortised cost)5$119.89M$119.89M$36,4500.03%
Credit cards10$120.1K$201.83K$33,26716.48%

Exposures

Ranked by allowance. Every reported figure decomposes to a single instrument — select a row for the stage reasoning behind it.

25 of 148
ExposureSectorStage / bandGrossEAD12m PDLifetime PDLGDAllowance
CRE-INV-006Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 2$14.9M$14.9M31.62%61.08%25.5%$2,182,517
SVC-TL-006Services
Term loans
Stage 3$1.52M$1.52M100.00%100.00%71.7%$1,087,004
ENR-TL-002Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 2$11.72M$11.72M11.45%28.83%30.2%$779,541
CORP-TL-006Corporate
Term loans
Stage 2$15.97M$15.97M3.32%10.70%46.4%$739,526
CORP-TL-008Corporate
Term loans
Stage 1$17.65M$17.65M8.18%20.37%46.4%$721,715
CRE-INV-004Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$6.27M$6.27M31.62%55.04%32.6%$660,028
ENR-TL-001Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 1$5.09M$5.09M29.58%43.66%39.8%$611,962
CORP-TL-007Corporate
Term loans
Stage 1$14.96M$14.96M8.18%21.45%46.4%$610,158
ENR-TL-003Energy and resources
Term loans
Stage 2$16.57M$16.57M4.67%14.49%30.6%$531,867
CRE-INV-002Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 2$13.59M$13.59M5.03%11.92%31.4%$517,977
CRE-INV-003Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$12.56M$12.56M12.30%30.67%29.4%$481,026
CRE-INV-005Commercial real estate
Term loans
Stage 1$10.73M$10.73M12.30%30.24%33.5%$474,498
CORP-TL-009Corporate
Term loans
Stage 2$6.67M$6.67M3.32%12.33%46.4%$330,036
SME-TL-009SME
Term loans
Stage 3$651.7K$651.7K100.00%100.00%49.2%$320,864
GTEE-PERF-002Corporate
Financial guarantees
Stage 2$0$2.97M8.18%12.30%46.4%$178,601
SVC-TL-004Services
Term loans
Stage 2$1.73M$1.73M10.59%22.67%56.0%$175,021
AGR-TL-003Agriculture
Term loans
Stage 2$1.12M$1.12M33.99%53.10%34.1%$165,309
IC-LOAN-002Corporate
Intercompany loans
Stage 2$5.85M$5.85M3.32%5.10%46.4%$150,475
CORP-RCF-002Corporate
Revolving facilities
Stage 2$2.75M$3.93M3.32%7.84%46.4%$148,144
COMMIT-UND-003Corporate
Loan commitments
Stage 1$0$3M8.18%15.11%46.4%$122,139
FI-SNR-002Financial institutions
Debt securities (FVOCI)
Stage 2$2.98M$2.98M2.69%8.15%47.5%$116,702
MFG-TL-005Manufacturing
Term loans
Stage 2$1.92M$1.92M9.81%21.79%33.5%$114,162
AR-030Services
Trade receivables
Over 90 days$325.3K$325.3K———$113,855
MFG-TL-003Manufacturing
Term loans
Stage 2$3.34M$3.34M3.99%11.57%35.9%$107,904
FI-SNR-004Financial institutions
Debt securities (FVOCI)
Stage 2$14.99M$14.99M0.042%1.62%47.5%$101,957