The allowance
IFRS 9 expected credit loss · Demonstration entity · Reporting date 2026-06-30
How this run is identified
- Run
- 307f1c4485feed7e
- Portfolio hash
- 63ceaf5de75a
- Config hash
- ab31008a7d5d
- Engine
- v0.3.0
- Method
- Expert / benchmark PD
The assumptions behind this figureHow the economic scenarios are weighted and how severe each is, the days-overdue trigger, any manual adjustment, and what the allowance would be under each scenario on its own.
Scenario weights
Weights are not normalised automatically. Adjusting one and silently rebalancing the others would change a governance-approved parameter nobody touched.
Scenario severity
The systematic factor Z, in standard-normal units. Negative is stress. The base case sits above zero because the modal economy is better than the mean one.
Policy and adjustments
IFRS 9.5.5.11 presumes 30 days. Raising it rebuts the presumption and blocks review until the supporting evidence is recorded.
Reported as its own component, never merged into the modelled figure.
Scenario sensitivity
Allowance if each scenario were weighted 100%. A wide spread means most of the number rests on the weighting judgement rather than on the data — which a reader is entitled to know.
| Scenario | Weight | Z | LGD × | ECL at 100% | vs reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Downside Recession scenario. Severity is set so the weighted set reproduces the through-the-cycle default rate. Replace with the entity's own approved stress narrative. | 30% | -1.40 | 1.25 | $29,401,830 | +118.2% |
Base Central forecast — the most likely state, which sits above the long-run average because the loss distribution is right-skewed. Replace with the entity's own approved macro baseline. | 50% | 0.40 | 1.00 | $7,520,875 | -44.2% |
Upside Expansion scenario. Replace with the entity's own approved upside narrative. | 20% | 1.20 | 0.90 | $4,477,302 | -66.8% |
| Probability-weighted (reported model output) | 100% | — | — | $13,476,447 | — |
Stage analysis — general approach
Gross carrying amount and loss allowance by stage, as IFRS 7 paragraph 35M asks.
| Stage | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stage 112-month ECL | 80 | $380.61M | $414.17M | $5,116,973 | 1.34% |
Stage 2Lifetime ECL, not credit-impaired | 32 | $120.13M | $124.36M | $6,574,308 | 5.47% |
Stage 3Lifetime ECL, credit-impaired | 5 | $2.4M | $2.41M | $1,475,081 | 61.43% |
| Total — general approach | 117 | $503.14M | $540.94M | $13,166,362 | 2.62% |
Ageing analysis — simplified approach
Trade receivables and contract assets carry lifetime ECL from initial recognition and are never staged. Reported by ageing band, which is what IFRS 7 contemplates for them.
| Ageing band | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 12 | $2.42M | $2.42M | $12,102 | 0.50% |
| 1–30 days | 8 | $1.78M | $1.78M | $26,676 | 1.50% |
| 31–60 days | 5 | $735.6K | $735.6K | $36,780 | 5.00% |
| 61–90 days | 3 | $512.4K | $512.4K | $61,488 | 12.00% |
| Over 90 days | 3 | $494.4K | $494.4K | $173,040 | 35.00% |
| Total — simplified approach | 31 | $5.94M | $5.94M | $310,086 | 5.22% |
What to know before you file this
Some of these stop a figure being produced at all. The rest stop nothing — they are facts about what the number rests on, and they go into the working paper so whoever reads it sees what you saw.
- Must be disclosedNobody has taken responsibility for the Retail mortgage parameters. (11 exposures)Either replace them with your own experience and record the basis, or adopt the starting model as your own estimate — which needs a name and a date against it, not a tick. A published study considered and adopted is an estimate; the same study used because nobody looked is not.
- Must be disclosedThe provision matrix for Services has no documented basis for its loss rates.Record how the rates were derived. An ageing snapshot alone does not establish a loss rate — that requires cohorts tracked to resolution, with collections, write-offs, recoveries and a stated treatment of incomplete outcomes.
- Observation117 of 117 loans have no record of how likely they were to default when they were made. So whether their risk has risen since is judged from the rating they started on, against today's economic forecast. A downgraded loan still moves to lifetime losses on that comparison; a worse economy on its own cannot move anything, because today's forecast sits on both sides of it. The 30-days-past-due rule, forbearance and watchlist still apply as normal.Add a "Lifetime PD at origination" column to the file — the probability of default recorded when each loan was made — and the economic half of the test starts working. Until then, say in the note that an increase in credit risk is judged on arrears, rating changes and forbearance, not on changes in the economic outlook.
Break it down furtherBy sector and by product, and every exposure behind the figure with the rates that drove it.
Sector analysis
How strongly each sector moves with the wider economy (ρ) is what makes the same downturn cost them differently. Using one figure for a whole book is the standard model's most consequential simplification.
| Sector | ρ | Count | Gross | Allowance | Coverage | Primary macro drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial real estateour starting rates | 0.25 | 8 | $76.79M | $4,487,668 | 5.84% | Commercial property prices · Vacancy rate · Policy rate |
| Corporateour starting rates | 0.18 | 27 | $158.87M | $3,587,474 | 2.26% | GDP growth · Credit spreads · Equity index |
| Energy and resourcesour starting rates | 0.22 | 5 | $65.45M | $2,030,252 | 3.10% | Commodity prices · GDP growth · FX rate |
| Servicesour starting rates | 0.15 | 37 | $15.28M | $1,685,399 | 11.03% | GDP growth · Consumer spending · Unemployment |
| SMEour starting rates | 0.12 | 16 | $5.33M | $646,430 | 12.13% | GDP growth · Business insolvencies · Policy rate |
| Manufacturingour starting rates | 0.19 | 7 | $21.88M | $385,851 | 1.76% | Industrial production · GDP growth · Export demand |
| Agricultureour starting rates | 0.14 | 7 | $3.17M | $274,594 | 8.67% | Crop prices · Rainfall index · Input cost index |
| Financial institutionsour starting rates | 0.24 | 4 | $37.35M | $236,313 | 0.63% | Bank credit spreads · Policy rate · GDP growth |
| Retail unsecuredour starting rates | 0.04 | 18 | $338.2K | $66,073 | 19.54% | Unemployment · Real household income · Inflation |
| Retail mortgageour starting rates | 0.15 | 14 | $4.73M | $39,942 | 0.84% | House price index · Unemployment · Policy rate |
| Sovereign and public sectorour starting rates | 0.20 | 5 | $119.89M | $36,450 | 0.03% | Sovereign spread · Fiscal balance · FX reserves |
Asset category analysis
Coverage is shown against EAD as well as gross, because off-balance-sheet items — guarantees and undrawn commitments — carry real credit exposure with little or no carrying amount.
| Asset category | Count | Gross | EAD | Allowance | Coverage / EAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term loans | 74 | $305.27M | $305.27M | $11,733,497 | 3.84% |
| Revolving facilities | 6 | $24.05M | $38.38M | $314,744 | 0.82% |
| Trade receivables | 31 | $5.94M | $5.94M | $310,086 | 5.22% |
| Loan commitments | 4 | $0 | $11.63M | $262,551 | 2.26% |
| Financial guarantees | 5 | $0 | $11.62M | $259,339 | 2.23% |
| Debt securities (FVOCI) | 4 | $37.35M | $37.35M | $236,313 | 0.63% |
| Intercompany loans | 3 | $15.93M | $15.93M | $182,212 | 1.14% |
| Overdrafts | 6 | $534.5K | $667.88K | $107,988 | 16.17% |
| Debt securities (amortised cost) | 5 | $119.89M | $119.89M | $36,450 | 0.03% |
| Credit cards | 10 | $120.1K | $201.83K | $33,267 | 16.48% |
Exposures
Ranked by allowance. Every reported figure decomposes to a single instrument — select a row for the stage reasoning behind it.
| Exposure | Sector | Stage / band | Gross | EAD | 12m PD | Lifetime PD | LGD | Allowance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRE-INV-006 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 2 | $14.9M | $14.9M | 31.62% | 61.08% | 25.5% | $2,182,517 |
| SVC-TL-006 | Services Term loans | Stage 3 | $1.52M | $1.52M | 100.00% | 100.00% | 71.7% | $1,087,004 |
| ENR-TL-002 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 2 | $11.72M | $11.72M | 11.45% | 28.83% | 30.2% | $779,541 |
| CORP-TL-006 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 2 | $15.97M | $15.97M | 3.32% | 10.70% | 46.4% | $739,526 |
| CORP-TL-008 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 1 | $17.65M | $17.65M | 8.18% | 20.37% | 46.4% | $721,715 |
| CRE-INV-004 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $6.27M | $6.27M | 31.62% | 55.04% | 32.6% | $660,028 |
| ENR-TL-001 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 1 | $5.09M | $5.09M | 29.58% | 43.66% | 39.8% | $611,962 |
| CORP-TL-007 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 1 | $14.96M | $14.96M | 8.18% | 21.45% | 46.4% | $610,158 |
| ENR-TL-003 | Energy and resources Term loans | Stage 2 | $16.57M | $16.57M | 4.67% | 14.49% | 30.6% | $531,867 |
| CRE-INV-002 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 2 | $13.59M | $13.59M | 5.03% | 11.92% | 31.4% | $517,977 |
| CRE-INV-003 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $12.56M | $12.56M | 12.30% | 30.67% | 29.4% | $481,026 |
| CRE-INV-005 | Commercial real estate Term loans | Stage 1 | $10.73M | $10.73M | 12.30% | 30.24% | 33.5% | $474,498 |
| CORP-TL-009 | Corporate Term loans | Stage 2 | $6.67M | $6.67M | 3.32% | 12.33% | 46.4% | $330,036 |
| SME-TL-009 | SME Term loans | Stage 3 | $651.7K | $651.7K | 100.00% | 100.00% | 49.2% | $320,864 |
| GTEE-PERF-002 | Corporate Financial guarantees | Stage 2 | $0 | $2.97M | 8.18% | 12.30% | 46.4% | $178,601 |
| SVC-TL-004 | Services Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.73M | $1.73M | 10.59% | 22.67% | 56.0% | $175,021 |
| AGR-TL-003 | Agriculture Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.12M | $1.12M | 33.99% | 53.10% | 34.1% | $165,309 |
| IC-LOAN-002 | Corporate Intercompany loans | Stage 2 | $5.85M | $5.85M | 3.32% | 5.10% | 46.4% | $150,475 |
| CORP-RCF-002 | Corporate Revolving facilities | Stage 2 | $2.75M | $3.93M | 3.32% | 7.84% | 46.4% | $148,144 |
| COMMIT-UND-003 | Corporate Loan commitments | Stage 1 | $0 | $3M | 8.18% | 15.11% | 46.4% | $122,139 |
| FI-SNR-002 | Financial institutions Debt securities (FVOCI) | Stage 2 | $2.98M | $2.98M | 2.69% | 8.15% | 47.5% | $116,702 |
| MFG-TL-005 | Manufacturing Term loans | Stage 2 | $1.92M | $1.92M | 9.81% | 21.79% | 33.5% | $114,162 |
| AR-030 | Services Trade receivables | Over 90 days | $325.3K | $325.3K | — | — | — | $113,855 |
| MFG-TL-003 | Manufacturing Term loans | Stage 2 | $3.34M | $3.34M | 3.99% | 11.57% | 35.9% | $107,904 |
| FI-SNR-004 | Financial institutions Debt securities (FVOCI) | Stage 2 | $14.99M | $14.99M | 0.042% | 1.62% | 47.5% | $101,957 |